MTD tax estimate quarterly update: why your 2026/27 figure can change

What the MTD tax estimate after a quarterly update actually is

After you send a quarterly update, HMRC says you can see an estimate of your tax bill for your self-employment and property income in compatible software or in your HMRC online services account.

That estimate is driven by summary totals from your digital records. Every 3 months, your software adds together the income and expense categories used for self-employment and property income, then sends those totals to HMRC.

The update is not a tax return. HMRC’s own guidance says quarterly updates are summaries, and that you do not need to make accounting or tax adjustments before sending them.

• It is an in-year estimate, not the final Self Assessment result.
• It is based on the cumulative income and expense totals sent so far.
• It can change after later updates.
• It can change again when final tax adjustments and other income are included.

Why your MTD estimate can change after each quarterly update

Each quarterly update is cumulative. That means the second update does not just cover the second quarter; it covers from the start of the tax year to the end of that update period. The same applies to the third and fourth updates.

A landlord’s figures rarely arrive evenly through the year. Rent may be steady, but expenses often are not. Insurance, repairs, agent fees, service charges, licence fees and professional costs can land in one period and make the next estimate look very different.

The estimate can also move because you correct records, recategorise an expense, add a missing invoice, or record income that had not been captured when the earlier update was sent. If the mistake is in a submitted quarterly update, use the process in correcting an MTD quarterly update.

• Later quarters add more rent and more expenses.
• Annual or irregular costs can distort early estimates.
• Corrections to income or expenses can change the cumulative totals.
• Final tax adjustments are not required before quarterly updates.
• Other income not yet reported to HMRC can make the estimate less accurate.

What HMRC receives, and what it does not receive

HMRC receives totals for the relevant income and expense categories. It does not receive every individual digital record, such as each receipt or invoice, as part of the quarterly update.

That distinction matters. Your digital records still need to be kept properly, but the quarterly submission is a summary of category totals, not a document-by-document upload.

If your portfolio has several properties, your software should bring the relevant UK property business figures together for the update. The detail behind those totals still matters for your own records and for the final return.

• Sent: category totals for property and self-employment income and expenses.
• Not sent: every invoice, receipt or bank transaction line.
• Still required: digital records that support the totals.
• Still required: the quarterly update even if the latest period has £0 income and £0 expenses.

2026/27 quarterly update deadlines and the final tax return date

For landlords who enter MTD from 6 April 2026, the first four quarterly update deadlines fall across 2026 and 2027. These deadlines are reporting dates, not four tax payment dates.

The 2026/27 MTD tax return must be submitted from MTD-compatible software by 31 January 2028. If you started MTD on 6 April 2026, you still submit your 2025/26 Self Assessment return in the usual way by 31 January 2027.

For a wider calendar view, use our MTD quarterly deadline calendar 2026/27.

Who sees these estimates from April 2026

Making Tax Digital for Income Tax applies from 6 April 2026 to individuals registered for Self Assessment with qualifying income from self-employment and/or property of more than £50,000.

The threshold falls to more than £30,000 from April 2027 and more than £20,000 from April 2028. Qualifying income means gross turnover from self-employment and property before expenses, not taxable profit.

For the April 2026 start, HMRC uses the 2024 to 2025 tax return to check whether qualifying income was over £50,000. Employment income, dividends and pensions do not count towards qualifying income, although they can still affect your final tax position.

How landlords should use the estimate without being misled

Use the in-year estimate as a cash-flow warning light. It can help you spot whether your tax bill is trending higher or lower than expected, but it should not replace a proper annual forecast.

The estimate is likely to be weaker if you have income HMRC does not yet know about, such as income sources outside the quarterly update flow, or if your accounting period does not match the tax year. HMRC says it will include information it already holds, including student loan or postgraduate loan plan or type, but it cannot include what it has not yet been told.

A sensible approach is to compare three numbers: your software estimate after each update, your own annual forecast, and a calculator-based estimate using the free checker above. If they move in different directions, investigate before the final return rather than waiting until January 2028.

• Check whether the estimate assumes a full year pattern from partial-year data.
• Look for missing rent, late expenses or duplicate transactions.
• Do not ignore student loan or postgraduate loan deductions if relevant.
• Keep a separate annual forecast for cash reserves.
• Review the position again after the fourth update and before the MTD tax return.

A worked example

Example: Priya is a landlord in MTD for 2026/27. Her first estimate looks high because she has received rent steadily, but several annual costs have not yet been recorded.

This shows why the in-year estimate can fall even when rent is unchanged. The estimate after update 1 was based on incomplete in-year expense data, not Priya’s final 2026/27 tax position.

Frequently asked questions